Opium prices in Afghanistan near historic peaks, mostly benefiting large-scale traffickers
Opium prices in Afghanistan soared to $750 per kilogram in 2024, according to a new report released by the UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC). This marks a tenfold increase from the $75 per kilogram price in 2022, prior to the de facto Afghan authorities imposing a ban on drugs.
High Prices Despite Declining Production
Following the drug ban, opium production in Afghanistan has dropped, leading to a 50% reduction in opiate trafficking, including heroin and opium seizures, since 2021. However, despite the lower trade volumes, the high price per kilogram ensures that substantial profits are still being generated, primarily benefiting high-level traders and exporters in organized crime groups. Opiate stocks at the end of 2022 were estimated to total 13,200 tons—enough to meet demand for Afghan opiates until 2027.
Drug Trafficking Remains Highly Profitable
“The surge in opium prices and the substantial stockpiles mean that drug trafficking in Afghanistan remains a highly profitable illicit trade,” said Ghada Waly, Executive Director of UNODC. “The profits are being channeled to transnational organized crime groups, destabilizing Afghanistan, the region, and beyond. We need a coordinated counternarcotics strategy that targets trafficking networks, while at the same time investing in viable economic livelihoods for farmers, to provide long-term stability for Afghanistan and its people.”
Stockpiles and Economic Challenges
Before the reduction in opium cultivation, Afghanistan’s stockpiles may have been worth between $4.6 billion and $5.9 billion, roughly 23–29% of the country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2023. This may have helped mitigate some of the economic challenges Afghanistan has faced since the return of the de facto authorities.
However, the majority (60%) of these stockpiles are likely held by large traders and exporters. Only 30% of farmers held small to modest stockpiles in 2022, indicating that most farmers who previously cultivated opium are likely facing severe financial hardship. Sustainable economic alternatives are urgently needed to prevent these farmers from potentially returning to poppy cultivation, especially with the current high opium prices.
Opium Shortages May Lead to More Dangerous Drugs
The continued supply shortage of opium could prompt buyers and sellers to turn to alternative drugs that might be even more harmful than heroin, such as fentanyl or other synthetic opioids.
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